Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

Holiday Retail Recap

By 
Ethan Chernofsky
January 11, 2021
Holiday Retail Recap
SHARE
Explore our free tools to get timely insights into key industries
Check out the latest trends for
No items found.
Key Takeaways

It was a holiday season those in retail will never forget, however they might try. Just as many retailers were moving ever closer to 2019 visit levels, the COVID pandemic not only made its impact felt, but actually surged just prior to a critical Black Friday weekend. 

But, what did this mean for the sector as a whole? And were there any silver linings to a holiday retail season defined by such tremendous obstacles to success? We analyzed the location analytics of over 30 top retailers to see.

The Overall Picture - Offline Retail’s Tremendous Resiliency

When analyzing the group overall, we see that there has been a clear and marked level of progress when looking at average monthly visits year over year. October brought the group average within 5.7% of 2019 levels, but a resurgence of COVID cases struck just as the sector was heading into Black Friday week. 

The result was a huge step back with visits down 16.6% year over year, the worst mark for the group since the retail recovery began in earnest in June. Yet, just as significant was December, showing a huge improvement with visits down just 12.1%. This was aligned with where visits had been in September and ahead of August levels, even though it was being measured against a normally very significant December period.

Weekly Visits Reveal More

Weekly visits show the devastating impact of Black Friday’s 2020 decline even more. Visits for the week were down 24.7% year over year, the worst mark for the wider group in months. Yet, from this nadir, the retailers analyzed did see a significant improvement across the board. By the week of Super Saturday, visits were down just 14.6% year over year and the week heading into Christmas was down just 11.9%.

And this ‘second wave’ of recovery is extremely important and did more than just end the year on a high point. Firstly, it showed the tremendous resiliency of offline retail to recover yet again so quickly after a resurgence of COVID cases. Shoppers have consistently shown that when allowed to return to retail, they will. Secondly, it showed the ability to recover even when compared to significant peaks. Part of the reason that the year-over-year visit gap on Black Friday week was so significant is that the normal peak reach is equally massive. 

Yet, the same is true of Super Saturday week or the days heading into Christmas. And while the gaps still remained, they were far more manageable for the brands measured.

Retail’s Secret Weapon?

But one element that could have a dramatic effect on how ‘bad’ the retail season really ends up being is basket size. We have discussed at length the shift to mission-driven shopping that pushed more visitors to accomplish more with each visit. And this was indicated heavily by visit duration, where the length of stay not only indicated a higher likelihood of conversion, but a potentially larger conversion as well.

And this holiday season saw that trend sustain across sectors. Target, Dollar General and Dick’s Sporting Goods saw visit duration up 7.0%, 9.1% and 13.2% respectively during the holiday season, and even Macy’s - one of the hardest hit brands by the pandemic - saw a 2.0% increase in visit duration. If these brands managed to drive larger basket sizes with these extended visits, they may prove capable of offsetting some of the expected losses - and this doesn't take into account the potential impact of digital channels.

The Highlights

Visit duration wasn’t the only positive during the holiday period. Many brands saw exceptionally strong performances, especially when comparing them to other players in their space. Target saw visits down 7.2%, but this was ahead of Walmart, and came as the brand saw a huge increase in visit duration. Critically, these numbers are being compared against the exceptionally high peaks Target hit in 2019.

But others showed strength as well. Home Depot and Lowe’s continued their 2020 surges with visits up 13.7% and 17.9% year over year respectively. At Home, HomeGoods and BJ’s continued strong campaigns with visits that rose 10.2%, 4.9% and 8.2% year over year. And not all brands with declines should be seen in a negative light. Bath & Body Works managed a visit rate that was down just 10.9% year over year, ahead of competitors and especially strong considering how often locations are found in hard hit malls and regions. T.J. Maxx was also down 12.2% during the period, but this far outpaced the wider apparel sector further establishing the brand and the off-price segment as one to watch in 2021. 

Yes, the holiday season was especially challenging for offline retailers. However, there are very strong positive takeaways as well. The rapid recovery post-Black Friday indicates that the consumer demand is still very high and visitors are ready to return when able. There were also continued shifts in visit behavior that could significantly offset losses.
How significant will the recovery be in early 2021?

Visit Placer.ai to find out.

Learn how downtown regions across US cities are measuring up with our free tools.
Check out the latest trends for
No items found.

Related Topics

Explore our free tools to get timely insights into key industries
Check out the latest trends for
No items found.
SHARE
Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week
Subscribe to the newsletter
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Recent Publications

Get 3 brand & industry breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter
Dutch Bros. & Sprouts: Beverage-Led Success
Off-Price Apparel: Off to a Strong Start in 2025
Visitation Trends and Shopping Behaviors at Walmart & Target 
Restaurant Success in 2025: Experience, Convenience, and Familiarity
Home Improvement Segment Shows Stability
Fitness Starts Strong in 2025
The Meat of the Matter: Bloomin’ Brands in 2024
The Beat of the Bowl: Visitation Patterns for CAVA and sweetgreen
Women's Sports on a Roll: Packed Stadiums, The Sports Bra Bar & Restaurant, and Impacting CRE
Year of the Dragon, Luckiest Animal in the Zodiac: Will that Luck Hold for Asian-Themed CRE?
Washington DC: How the Population in Our Nation's Capital has Evolved Following the Pandemic
What First Half 2024 Visit Trends Tell Us About What to Expect in the Second Half
What Does Walmart’s Results Mean for Other Discretionary Retailers?
Warehouse Clubs: Younger Visitors Support Growth
Wayfair: Early Impressions from Wayfair's New Wilmette Store
We're All Mad for March Madness: NCAA Women's Basketball is Breaking All Sorts of Records
Warehouse Clubs: Finding the Perfect Timing
Ulta: A Thing of Beauty
The Sweet Smell of Success: How CPG Brands are Bringing Their Brands to Life with Experiential Stores
Urban Outfitters: High Income, Specialty Fleets Still Thriving
The Silver Lining to Mall Anchor Department Store Closures
Ulta Beauty: Store Visits and Target Partnership Driving Category Market Share
The Secret to Trader Joe's Success in 2023
Tractor Supply: Visitation Share Gains Continue Despite Weather-Related Disruptions
Takeaways from the 2024 Fast Casual Executive Summit
The Lure of Waikiki and Beyond: The Feel of Fifth Avenue on Oahu?
Target: Circle Week Shows Signs of Success
Suiting Up in Boston: Newbury Street Suitsupply Store Showing Signs of Strength
Takeaways from Shoptalk Fall
Stew Leonard’s: Specialty Grocery Still a Shining Example
Small Towns, Deepening Pockets: How Migration is Changing the Face of Boise
Studs: Reinvigorating the Accessories Category
South Asian Influence on Sports, Groceries, and Malls
Starbucks: Silver Linings After a Difficult Quarter
Shopping "High-Low": Escada and Club Monaco share space in Beverly Hills
Round1 Entertainment Expands with Spo-Cha Concept
Self-Storage: More Industry Consolidation Ahead
Self-Storage: Consolidation Driving Year-Over-Year Increases in Visits
Return to Office is Hot in Miami: Placer's New Return to Office Dashboard Launches
Restaurants: Bifurcation Here Too
Self-Storage: More Consolidation as Public Storage Acquires Simply Self Storage
Return to Office Insights: Miami and New York in the Lead
RFDC Takeaways: Lessons from CAVA and Other Restaurant Visit Share Winners
Pop-Ups Drive Excitement and Foretell Brand Demand
Restaurants: Where Do We Stand After Q1 2024
Restaurant Outlook 2024: Year of New Location Expansion Plans?
Reformation: Building an Apparel Destination
Pickleball and Padel: Saviors for Malls, but Threats to Tennis Courts?
Regional Grocery Update: Consumers Seeking Out Lower Prices
QSR Visit Trends: What Gives?
Performing Arts: Takeaways from the California Presenters Conference and Spotlight on Arizona Venues
Public Storage: Self-Storage Demand Resilient
QSR Chicken: Driving the Industry's Growth
Planet Fitness: Signs of a More Resilient Fitness Club Visitor?
Parks, Recreation Centers, and Redeveloped Malls: Community Glue
Outlet Malls: Ontario Mills Leads Black Friday, Arundel Mills Tops November Visitation
Olympics Boost: PR is Priceless
Olympic Inspiration: Is the Fitness Category Bringing Home the Gold?
Outlook for Holiday Thrifting: Inflation, Sustainability, and Gen Z Fuel Growth
Oklahoma, OK!: The Opening of Tulsa Premium Outlets Kickstarts Excitement
"Must-Have" Tenants for 2025: Top Brands to Elevate Your Outdoor Shopping Center
National Restaurant Association Show Takeaways: Who’s Winning the Food Fight?
Non-Traditional Anchors: Cheers or Jeers for Those Replacing Sears?
McDonald's: Where Do Whitespace Opportunities Exist?
Megamalls: All-Day Experiences, Entertainment, and Dining
Mercado Gonzalez: This Mexican Food Hall is a Magnet
Messi Mania hits Miami and LA
Luxury Outlet Malls: Seeing Strong Back-to-School Traffic and the Lure of Luxury
McDonald's: "Adult Happy Meal" Sets a High Bar for QSR Promotions
McDonald’s Swift E. Coli Response Should Minimize Traffic Impact, and SpongeBob’s a Hit at Wendy’s
Measuring the Impact of California’s Minimum Wage Increase on Restaurants
McDonald’s Joins the Restaurant Value Wars of 2024
McDonald’s and the Evolving State of Food Retail
How Have Winter Storms Impacted Retail Visits?
Luxury and Sustainability are the Ethos Driving 1 Hotels
Market Spotlight: How New Mexico Highlights its Cultural and Arts Scene to Drive Business and Leisure Tourism
Marine Layer: "Perfect for a 7-Day Weekend Kinda Lifestyle"
Market Spotlight: Downtown DC Breathes a Sigh of Relief as Washington Wizards and Capitals Stay Put
Kroger/Albertsons: Assessing the Aftershock
Lions and Tigers and Bears, Oh My!: Aquariums and Zoos trends from A to Z
Limited Too: Brand Relaunch Has Millennials in Mind
Let's Get Physical! Fitness Chains in Better Shape to Withstand Economic Volatility
Kohl's + Babies"R"Us: Early Learnings from Newly Opened Michigan Locations
ICSC Takeaways: Retail Optimism, Getting Creative with Formats, Impact of Hybrid/Remote Work, and Miami is Hot
Ikea: Why Invest More in Home Furnishing Retail Now?
In-N-Out Burger: What to Expect as the Brand Moves East
Haunted Car Wash? Tunnel of Terror “Boo”sts traffic by 3x
Hispanic Grocery Chains: Celebrating Cinco de Mayo‍
Housewares Retail: Kitchen Focused Chains Still Thriving
Home Improvement: Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware Drive Outperformance through Smaller Markets
Home Furnishing: 2024 Outlook for Housewares, Mattress, and Furniture Retail
Happy Hispanic Heritage Month! Popularity of Hispanic Grocery Underlines Growing Appetite for Latin Foods
Holiday 2024: Time is of the Essence
Hispanic Grocery: Customizing the Merchandise Assortment to the Neighborhood
Happy Nowruz! Celebrating Persian New Year with a Tour of Tehrangeles
Happy Lunar New Year Part 2: Vietnamese, Korean, and Pan-Asian Malls
Gifting, Paper and Books: Consumers Crave More in One Place
Golf's COVID Comeback: PGA Superstore Reaping the Benefits
GEN Korean BBQ House: IPO Filing Underpins the Importance of Experiential Dining
Formula 1: U.S. Grand Prix Expansion Winning Key Visitor Segments